2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROJECTION

Stephen L. DeFelice, M.D.

(Our next president will have a dramatic impact on medical care,
medical research and medical discovery. Hopefully, thi s assessment
will be helpful in your considerations)

Current “General” Cultural Dynamics

A).The technology fueled destabilization of traditional values such as
family, marriage, sex, religion, patriotism and respect, among others,
has led to a tsunami of emotional and financial insecurity where people
are increasingly depending on government for help which is why
socialism supported by Democrats under the guise of Progressivism is
taking hold.
B). Coupled with “A” is the use of the internet where we now have an
increasingly chaotic Virtual Democracy where everyone, as in a pure
democracy, can express their conflicting strong, personal emotions and
opinions which are interrelated with insecurity, i.e., hate, fear, a
guaranteed government income and others.
C). Generally speaking, Biden supports these general cultural dynamics
whereas Trump does not. Also, generally speaking, the vast majority of
voters have made up their minds. This analysis addresses a) The Trump
Silent Majority b) Swing Voters and c) Undecided Voters who have just
or not yet voted.


Scale Method of Subject Evaluation

Where appropriate, each category will be evaluated on a 10-1 scale, the
first number representing Trump and the second, Biden. When not
appropriate, the scale will be enclosed in parentheses. There will be
two separate scale quantifications, one without and one with the
parenthesis.

The Addressed Categories

POLLS: Before making judgments based on polls, it’s critical that one
understands the reliability of them. Very few do! A poll is simply a type
of clinical study in which something is measured. A political poll is a
social-psychological clinical study attempting to measure certain
feelings and opinions of a targeted segment of society. Now it has been
objectively demonstrated that social-psychological clinical studies are
highly unreliable frequently arriving at faulty conclusions. The reason?
Unlike in standard medical clinical studies where not only the design
and statistical analysis are acceptable but other similarly studies
reproduce the same results, this fails to occur in many social-
psychological studies such as with polls. For example, if one medical
study concludes that insulin lowers blood sugar, the medical
community would require that another similar study be done to
support this conclusion. It’s interesting to note that I know of no
commonly quoted political poll that has been sufficiently reproduced.
“So,” you ask. “What am I to believe?” With certain exceptions, don’t
accept the conclusions of these ongoing political polls. They may or
may not be valid, but we just don’t know – and that’s what you should
believe. The experience with failed former presidential candidate,
Hilary Clinton, where the polls almost all indicated that she would certainly win the election against Trump, confirms the fallibility of the
poll system.
And now to the major rarely mentioned and least understood flaw of
the polls: It’s the non-responders or those who refuse to respond to
pollsters. I live in the affluent town of Westfield, N.J., where recent
election results reveal about a 50/50 Democrat- Republican population.
On the lawns Biden-Harris signs are prevalent but, though they may
exist, I could not locate a single Trump-Pence one. The same held true
in a neighboring town. I contacted a number of Republicans regarding
this phenomenon, and their reasons basically boiled down were to
avoid the potential violence, as witnessed in some of our Democrat
urban cities, of Democrat advocates. Also, and not surprisingly, they
mentioned the factor of their privacy.
Conclusion: The number of non-responders in polls borders are
generally somewhere in the 10% range. Making the reasonable
assumption they are primarily Republicans and Trump supporters, such
polls would heavily favor Trump. Scale, 10 – 6


Subjects Evaluated

  1. Covid: The virus has dramatically increased our level of
    insecurity. Trump had the winning card but didn’t play it well.
    Scale, 10-10
  2. Financial aid: Tough to judge but he got it done. Scale, 10-9
  3. General economy: Trump. Scale 10-5
  4. Race- Little doubt that Trump has made significant inroads on
    the Black –Hispanic vote the degree and importance of which
    has been suppressed by the media. It could be a huge factor favoring Trump. Biden’s support of the 1994 bill which put many Blacks in jail is being spread even by Black leaders. Scale 10-9
  5. White suburban female vote: There is little evidence that their
    anti-Trump mentality has significantly changed though it is a
    possibility. Scale, 7-10
  6. Corruption-Biden: Little doubt that this huge unknown will favor
    Trump. If the news just before the election continues it will
    continue to favor Trump. Scale 10-8
  7. Harris as next president: a) If Republicans raise the possibility of
    the 25 th Amendment due to corruption where a president
    because of his criminality can be removed and Harris will
    become president. Once more, if the scandal continues to
    escalate, the Harris factor may tilt the scale more toward Trump.
    Scale, 10-9
  8. Harris as next president: b) Biden’s clear mental limitations are
    in play the impact of which is not yet highly visible but many-
    both Democrats and Republicans are aware of this. Scale 10-9
  9. Fracking and anti-oil industry: Biden’s reversal on his anti-
    fracking past position and his clear anti-oil industry position will
    lose key voters particularly in the critical Democratic state of
    Pennsylvania which Trump barely won in the last election. But
    the message is much broader. There about 10 million jobs (plus
    family members which should bring it to at least 20 million
    voters) connected to the oil industry with the average annual
    salary of $100,000. A huge blunder by Biden. Scale, 10-7
  10. National security: This is a complicated one to assess but, I
    believe it significantly favors Trump particularly because of the
    China factor. (See China below). Scale, 10-9
  11. China: Trump has successfully and justifiably labeled China
    as our number one enemy by labeling Covid as “the China virus”,
    China’s stealing our technology, China’s taking away millions of
    American jobs, China’s international expansion and China’s cruel
    treatment of minorities. Polls and media coverage which
    importantly support the polling results, overwhelmingly reveal
    anti-China sentiments. Scale, 10-8
  12. Personality: There’s little doubt that a more calming voice
    than Trump’s is a plus during these insecure and anxiety-ridden
    times. Biden’s calmer style has an advantage in certain
    population segments but he’s not as persuasive as Obama. (As
    an aside and regarding men, I’m intellectually puzzled by the
    unequivocal reality that the toughness and roughness of Trump’s
    doesn’t bother some men but others are sensitive to it). Scale, 7-
    10
  13. Amy Barrett-Supreme Court: Trump’s promise to appoint
    conservative judges, particularly to the Supreme Court, played a
    major role in the last presidential election. I believe, since
    Barrett is a woman and for other reasons, it will also play a more
    important one. Also, because of Barrett, Biden has raised the
    issue of packing or altering the Supreme Court which the public
    doesn’t appreciate. Scale, 10-8
  14. Religion: The Democrats are perceived as the anti-religion
    party while Trump, himself, is perceived as pro-religion.
    Historically, Protestants were not pro-Catholic but the Barrett
    selection and her strong Christian religious beliefs and way of life
    have dramatically energized them to vote for Trump. Protestant religious channels currently praise Barrett attesting to this phenomenon. Scale, 10-7
  15. Absentee ballots which history began during the Civil War
    and have continued since: To date 63 million citizens, which is
    rapidly expanding, have voted which leaves about 100 million or
    fewer remaining voters. Who are these people? Even my
    Democrat colleagues agree that many of their members actually
    hate Trump, and such emotions are a force to get out to vote.
    On the other hand, Republicans have their own reasons to
    absentee vote. There is also some evidence that young,
    educated voters, who favor Democrats, are casting absentee
    votes in record numbers. Most reasonable pundits would give
    the edge to Democrats. Scale, 8-10
  16. Swing and Undecided voters and Swing States: Trump is
    highly energized campaigning in these states with huge
    audiences and most likely will increase voter turnout. Also, this
    impact of which is rarely evaluated let alone mentioned, local
    media extensively covers these events which the national anti-
    Trump media cannot override. Scale, 10-8
    (Also, though not sufficiently quantified, it has been reported by
    pollsters that swing voters tend to factor in personality traits. If
    the Hunter Biden story escalates this week before the election, it
    may help swing and undecided voters overcome some of Trump’s
    negative personality traits.)
  17. The National media’s anti-Trump impact: It’s well known
    that the national media is anti-Trump. It’s also well-known that
    the public is aware of this phenomenon. It’s not known how this
    will impact voter decisions and voter turnout. Scale, 10-10
  18. The last Presidential Debate: Trump touched on many
    popular topics such as China, the pre-Covid booming economy,
    the military, our police force, border immigration, benefits to
    blacks and Hispanics and the Hunter Biden scandal. A clear
    victory for Trump. Scale, 10-9
  19. Recent polls: They, and importantly, along with other
    supportive information, have the race significantly tightening.
    Scale, 10-8
  20. National Media and Biden Scandal during the last week: Will
    they routinely cover the Hunter Biden scandal or play it down? It
    depends upon the facts. If the scandal continues to grow and is
    generally true, they can’t play it down because audiences of all
    political types will turn to conservative outlets for the news
    which favor Trump and will sway a certain number of key voters
    to vote for Trump. (Scale, 10-8)
  21. The contested election, Amy Barrett and when to finalize the
    Electoral College vote: There is the definite possibility that the
    election will be contested and be adjudicated before the
    Supreme Court where it will be decided where to draw the time-
    line regarding the final Electoral College vote count as was done
    with Bush-Gore presidential controversy. Barrett will play a key
    role. (Scale, 10-10)

Total Scores

A. Without parentheses – Trump, 192, to Biden, 169
B. With Parentheses – Trump, 20 to Biden, 18

Conclusion

The Scale evaluation indicates that, though favoring Trump, it’s a
close race. If the Hunter Biden scandal escalates during this last week, it
will be a significant factor in supporting the Trump vote and victory.

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